All about Pakistan

The political winds are once again blowing hard in Pakistan. It is a familiar scene that the country has experienced repeatedly in its 60 years history a military General outsmarting the political lot. First military President Field Marshal Ayub Khan laid his own rules of the game to compete with the sister of the founder of Pakistan Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah, for the Presidency of the country. About two decades later the second military ruler President General Zia ul Haque out maneuvered the political Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) by instituting a referendum to elect himself as the President of the country. Although only 15% of registered voters actually participated, the General got his way by stuffing the ballot boxes with sufficient bogus “yes” votes to claim victory as well as demonstrate that 45% of electorate participated. Now the third military ruler, President General Musharraf is playing the politicians against each other to get himself re-elected by the current assemblies to hedge his future against any newly elected parliament.

Among the current leadership Benazir Bhutto is probably the savviest, with deep knowledge of political maneuvering. She started her political game in May 2006 when she announced the signing of a charter of democracy with Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the second largest political party; Muslim League. It was obvious from the language of the charter that it was a political ploy put in place by Ms. Benazir to pressure the General for a possible deal to prepare ground for her return to the country and politics. The charter was a smart political move by Benazir as it was an all win situation for her. If the General did not come forward to form a deal with her she could continue with the charter and gain leadership of the house as it would have been too tall an order for the military machine to beat the two largest parties competing together. As she anticipated the General came forward with a deal which among other things includ her return to the country as well as dropping cases against her and her husband Asif Zardari.

As the rumors of the deal surfaced, Nawaz Sharif tried to keep her on his side by announcing an all parties conference in London. It was an ill timed and ill conceived effort by him to stay politically relevant in the upcoming elections. Choosing between General Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif is an easy task for Ms. Benazir. She will not hesitate even for a moment to side with General Musharraf as she knows well that she needs military support to rule in Pakistan. No government can ever be successful in Pakistan without the military support. She also knew that it was still not time for her to part ways with Nawaz Sharif so she once again out maneuvered him by agreeing to postpone the all parties conference for a month. This way she can keep the pressure on the General to get most advantage from the deal while keeping the charter alive, unless it runs out its usefulness.

General Musharraf also showed his political acumen to handle the situation by diverting the debate whether he can be elected by the present assemblies or not. The kings party, controlled by the Chaudhry’s, are struggling for their political life by appeasing the General to re-elect him for another term by the current assemblies. For their political benefits they don’t care if they break the constitution one more time as long as they keep the military on their side. From the statements made by Benazir Bhutto it seems she is not against the election of the General for another term by the present assemblies but she would not accept him in uniform. She knows too well that the General derives his ability to retain power from his uniform without any actual political base. If she can get him to give up his uniform for his re-election by the present assemblies then she can get rid of him later through political maneuvering. The General on the other hand also realizes this and is resisting giving up his power base. This is probably the reason the deal has not been formally announced so far.

During the rule of General Musharraf the unity of the country was seriously damaged by military action in two provinces namely NWFP and Balochistan. This, not only resulted in the loss of lives on both sides, but also damaged the image of the military as a national institution. A poor country does not pay a huge defense bill so that its soldiers can open fire on their own people. Never before in the history of Pakistan soldiers were made target by terrorists and suicide bombers. Political situations are not defused through trigger, but rather sitting around a table. It is true that tribal chiefs, in these provinces, have mostly been driven by greed and self-interest. But the power of a tribal leader cannot be undermined unless education is introduced in these areas. With an education budget of Rs. 89 per capita it is not possible to eradiate illiteracy to introduce a rule of law in these tribal areas.

In the international arena the General realizes that his honeymoon with the US is over since democrats took control of US congress and senate. This is indicated by a bill pending in the congress to limit military assistance to Pakistan. From the news articles it seems likely to pass without much resistance. The other development which did not catch much media attention was the invitation of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari to attend the presidential breakfast in White House in January. It is also likely that the next US president will be a Democrat with a desire to correct past wrongs done in Afghanistan and Iraq. Lead by General Musharraf, Pakistan played a key role in US war against terror without much success to satisfy US despite seriously damaging its own federation. In their desire to change directions there is a probability that Democratic president will not be willing to give so much levy to Musharraf as was accorded by Republican President George Bush. The General realizes this shift in winds which is obvious from his desire to form an international forum of Muslim states to maintain his relevance on the international scene.

Enlightened moderation is a good concept but it should start from home. No country with ethnic diversity can maintain its unity unless civilian rule is allowed to prevail. Generals should be allowed to participate in the elections once they are retired from active service and a lapse of 2 years is allowed. If they keep abrogating the constitution to further the cause of their organization and personal ambition then there will be a day when armed forces will loose the respect of the nation. It will be a sad day and final nail in the efforts to keep the country united.