In Islam there is no concept of reincarnation but apparently in Pakistani politics a person can get as many lives as they want. Few years ago in Houston Ms. Bhutto spoke about Pakistan, her return to the country and democracy. At that time if anyone had taken a poll about the possibility of her return to power it would probably be a big no. But the lady luck is once again knocking at Ms. Bhutto’s door for a third life as leader of the parliament. How did all this happen?
A look at General Musharraf’s government makes it quite clear that it is a patch work of army to give their government a civilian face. There is not a single person in the present regime that can claim to be a national figure. Most of these leaders can hardly win in their own constituency without the support of an invisible hand. None of them have a vision or an independent voice. Their ability to run a government is directly proportional to the popularity of General Musharraf. As the popularity of the general goes down the stool on which they all are sitting also starts shaking miserably. The political storm raised by the reference against the chief justice has proved this point.
General Musharraf derives his right to power from the support provided to him by the military establishment. This institutional support started moving away from him when he published his biography while in active service. It was unprecedented for a serving public figure to publish a book in which he criticized the decisions made by past and present military leadership. His second mistake was using military force in NWFP and Baluchistan for purely political issues. He forgot lessons learned in East Pakistan as well as from his predecessors Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Zia ul Haq who made the same mistake of solving political problems with force. His third mistake was signing an agreement with pro-taliban tribes in Waziristan thereby annoying his US supporters. After these developments it was only a matter of time when the forces against him would find a reason to ignite public uprising. General Musharraf provided that reason when he summoned the sitting Chief Justice of Pakistan to the army camp office on March 9th.
The political storm raised from this incident is gaining momentum and will only settle after inflicting damage on the government. At minimum it could force the General to relinquish his army uniform while the opposition agrees to his re-election by present assemblies. A less likely scenario will be for him to leave both Presidency and COAS positions.
In any situation the star of Ms. Bhutto seems to be rising. She has proved to be true to her pedigree of generations of political acumen. Her first trump card was signing a charter of democracy with the second largest party in the parliament, PML (N). Her second trump card was balancing her negotiation with General Musharraf’s government while maintaining Nawaz Sharif on her side. Her third card will be timing her return to the country to ensure her accession to power. The government has removed the impediments in her way by disbanding the NAB cell dealing with her cases as well as revoking the warrants issued by Interpol at government’s behest.
There is no doubt that Pakistan needs a moderate leader that can arrest the rising tide of fundamentalism, sectarianism and ethnicity. Ms. Bhutto can fill that void but she needs to develop a second tier leadership which can execute her plans at the grass roots level. She is surrounded by political opportunist who does not have the courage or intellectual depth to give her frank advice on matters of national interest. Speaking to her party officials makes a person feel that loyalty to Ms. Bhutto is the prime qualification to rise in PPP hierarchy. This not only breeds cronyism but also shield true patriot from gaining a voice in the organization. In her last two attempts at government she relied more on her party’s strength in Sindh and Punjab than form governments in all provinces. The defection of Aftab Sherpao to form his own faction of PPP has substantially weakened her party position in NWFP province. Even if he decides to come back to the fold it will be an uphill task for him to make a dent on MMA’s strong grip on NWFP politics.
As two terms Prime Minister it is expected that Ms. Bhutto has learned her lessons. But her political maneuvering does not suggest that her third attempt at the helm will be any different. It is still not clear how she will contain the influence of army to ensure establishment of political institutions in the country. Although she signed a charter of democracy with Nawaz Sharif, it is quite clear from her later actions that she is not willing to share power with him. This personal egotism is the biggest hurdle she has to overcome to be able to govern a fluid country like Pakistan.
It might be true that General Musharraf has not offered any deal to Pakistan Peoples Party. But it is quite obvious that government will allow Ms. Bhutto to participate in the elections to form a government that might be able to make some progress on the vision of enlightened moderation. There is also a possibility that military establishment will support PML (Q) to form a government in Punjab. This will be a similar situation to the one when Nawaz Sharif, as a military candidate, became Chief Minister of Punjab while Ms. Bhutto ran the government as Prime Minister after the 1988 elections. The recent activism of Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Ellahi makes him an ideal candidate for this role. If that happens there is a possibility PML (Q) or at least some of its members will be made part of the PPP government to keep their influence in check. It is in army’s favor that inept politicians form a government in the upcoming elections so that they lose popular support soon and provide them ground to once again grab power.
Politicians and army generals will keep struggling for power but it is the common man who has to wake up and take hold of the situation. As masses we can not stay passive any longer. All of us have to wake up and stop the exploitation by ambitious generals and politicians. Unless we take hold of our own destiny we will continue to be spectators of the power struggle while our children will suffer from lack of education and opportunities for a decent life.
Three lives
April 16, 2007 at 1:32 am · Filed under Political Commentary
In Islam there is no concept of reincarnation but apparently in Pakistani politics a person can get as many lives as they want. Few years ago in Houston Ms. Bhutto spoke about Pakistan, her return to the country and democracy. At that time if anyone had taken a poll about the possibility of her return to power it would probably be a big no. But the lady luck is once again knocking at Ms. Bhutto’s door for a third life as leader of the parliament. How did all this happen?
A look at General Musharraf’s government makes it quite clear that it is a patch work of army to give their government a civilian face. There is not a single person in the present regime that can claim to be a national figure. Most of these leaders can hardly win in their own constituency without the support of an invisible hand. None of them have a vision or an independent voice. Their ability to run a government is directly proportional to the popularity of General Musharraf. As the popularity of the general goes down the stool on which they all are sitting also starts shaking miserably. The political storm raised by the reference against the chief justice has proved this point.
General Musharraf derives his right to power from the support provided to him by the military establishment. This institutional support started moving away from him when he published his biography while in active service. It was unprecedented for a serving public figure to publish a book in which he criticized the decisions made by past and present military leadership. His second mistake was using military force in NWFP and Baluchistan for purely political issues. He forgot lessons learned in East Pakistan as well as from his predecessors Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Zia ul Haq who made the same mistake of solving political problems with force. His third mistake was signing an agreement with pro-taliban tribes in Waziristan thereby annoying his US supporters. After these developments it was only a matter of time when the forces against him would find a reason to ignite public uprising. General Musharraf provided that reason when he summoned the sitting Chief Justice of Pakistan to the army camp office on March 9th.
The political storm raised from this incident is gaining momentum and will only settle after inflicting damage on the government. At minimum it could force the General to relinquish his army uniform while the opposition agrees to his re-election by present assemblies. A less likely scenario will be for him to leave both Presidency and COAS positions.
In any situation the star of Ms. Bhutto seems to be rising. She has proved to be true to her pedigree of generations of political acumen. Her first trump card was signing a charter of democracy with the second largest party in the parliament, PML (N). Her second trump card was balancing her negotiation with General Musharraf’s government while maintaining Nawaz Sharif on her side. Her third card will be timing her return to the country to ensure her accession to power. The government has removed the impediments in her way by disbanding the NAB cell dealing with her cases as well as revoking the warrants issued by Interpol at government’s behest.
There is no doubt that Pakistan needs a moderate leader that can arrest the rising tide of fundamentalism, sectarianism and ethnicity. Ms. Bhutto can fill that void but she needs to develop a second tier leadership which can execute her plans at the grass roots level. She is surrounded by political opportunist who does not have the courage or intellectual depth to give her frank advice on matters of national interest. Speaking to her party officials makes a person feel that loyalty to Ms. Bhutto is the prime qualification to rise in PPP hierarchy. This not only breeds cronyism but also shield true patriot from gaining a voice in the organization. In her last two attempts at government she relied more on her party’s strength in Sindh and Punjab than form governments in all provinces. The defection of Aftab Sherpao to form his own faction of PPP has substantially weakened her party position in NWFP province. Even if he decides to come back to the fold it will be an uphill task for him to make a dent on MMA’s strong grip on NWFP politics.
As two terms Prime Minister it is expected that Ms. Bhutto has learned her lessons. But her political maneuvering does not suggest that her third attempt at the helm will be any different. It is still not clear how she will contain the influence of army to ensure establishment of political institutions in the country. Although she signed a charter of democracy with Nawaz Sharif, it is quite clear from her later actions that she is not willing to share power with him. This personal egotism is the biggest hurdle she has to overcome to be able to govern a fluid country like Pakistan.
It might be true that General Musharraf has not offered any deal to Pakistan Peoples Party. But it is quite obvious that government will allow Ms. Bhutto to participate in the elections to form a government that might be able to make some progress on the vision of enlightened moderation. There is also a possibility that military establishment will support PML (Q) to form a government in Punjab. This will be a similar situation to the one when Nawaz Sharif, as a military candidate, became Chief Minister of Punjab while Ms. Bhutto ran the government as Prime Minister after the 1988 elections. The recent activism of Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Ellahi makes him an ideal candidate for this role. If that happens there is a possibility PML (Q) or at least some of its members will be made part of the PPP government to keep their influence in check. It is in army’s favor that inept politicians form a government in the upcoming elections so that they lose popular support soon and provide them ground to once again grab power.
Politicians and army generals will keep struggling for power but it is the common man who has to wake up and take hold of the situation. As masses we can not stay passive any longer. All of us have to wake up and stop the exploitation by ambitious generals and politicians. Unless we take hold of our own destiny we will continue to be spectators of the power struggle while our children will suffer from lack of education and opportunities for a decent life.
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